Concord got shut down two weeks after launch. Final Fantasy VII Rebirth was the fourth-best selling game of 2024 in April and Square Enix says it still underperformed. What happened to AAA games? Weirdly, it’s partially the economy.
The Way it Was
AAA games used to have it made in the shade. Before the advent of digital distribution, and for a short period after, the biggest developers worked for the biggest publishers and there was a very set amount of new games coming out each month. Competition wasn’t half as fierce as it is today.
Forever Games
Moreover, the modern trend of “forever games” like Fortnite and GTA Online has created an ecosystem in which new games are battling harder than ever for player attention. It’s tough to just make a good game and hope that it gets discovered by the right audience. That audience is too busy playing Minecraft and Overwatch 2 to notice your awesome single-player RPG adventure.
Infinite Money?
What’s worse, the live game trend has sent publishers scrambling to make a game that just needs to be updated periodically to become an infinite money machine. That’s a much safer bet, they reason, than taking a huge gamble on an ambitious single-player title that players will play through once and then never spend money on again.
But People Hate Those Games, Right?
Artistic integrity doesn’t really come into the picture when you’re trying to run a successful business. And, troublingly, it’s more expensive than ever to make games. With modern systems capable of near photorealistic graphics, even a short, simple game requires far more resources to create today than it would have even a decade ago.
Indies are the Future!
The picture is no better for indie developers, either. Sure, an indie team can create a game in a short amount of time and on a smaller budget, but they’re battling even harder than AAA publishers to get their title seen. It’s no longer enough to just make a cool, funky little platformer and fire it off to Steam. Without significant buzz and coverage from major news outlets and popular streamers, the average indie game is dead in the water.
Reiteration and Regurgitation
This means it’s sequels, franchises, remakes, and spin-offs galore. Investors don’t want to sign off on ambitious games that push the envelop and try new things when the vast majority of players will see the title, shrug, and keep logging hours on Fortnite.
GamePass and its Sins
And, even if players do pick up a new title, the odds they play through everything the developers lovingly crafted are pretty low. “Netflix-style” game libraries have made it easier than ever for players to just bounce from game to game without ever really settling into a groove.
Devaluing the Industry
Some experts have pointed out that these game libraries, and the race-to-the-bottom digital sales seen on platforms like Steam, have essentially devalued the entire marketplace. And that makes sense! Why would a gamer want to drop any money on an unproved new title when they can just pick up a free-to-play game like Apex Legends right now?
The Long Shadow of COVID-19
Of course, you can’t overlook the supply issues that made it hard to even get your hands on a new console in 2020. This could partially explain why the AAA space has felt adrift since the COVID-19 pandemic took the wind out of its sales. Many players have even noted that the PS5 and Xbox Series X generations barely feel like they’ve even started, with fewer flagship titles landing in the years since these expensive consoles launched. After all, chip shortages led to many developers simply making their new games available on both the old and current generations.
Interest Rates
There’s also the elephant in the room: high borrowing costs. In a bid to keep inflation down during the pandemic, the Federal Reserve has put interest rates for borrowing money at historic highs. This has put the pressure on businesses, as it’s tougher than ever to start new projects when borrowing money for them is costly in the long run. So, in a certain sense, COVID is doubly responsible for this ongoing issue.
A Perfect Storm
You can see how that’s troubling for game developers, given the long development times that major titles have these days. Those development times clashing up against fast-moving trends in the gaming industry means you get horribly mistimed flops like Suicide Squad: Kill the Justice League and Concord. The looter-shooter and hero shooter genres, respectively, were each fully oversaturated by the time either of those live service contenders hit the market.
Premium Cosmetics
Publishers looking for a way to recoup the high costs of their games have taken to appending battle passes, cosmetic item shops, and numerous other add-ons to their titles to try to squeeze high spenders. This has caused some longtime players to bristle, with many of them questioning why cosmetics and new items can’t just be available as part of the base game. Or, at least, as part of fairly-priced expansion packs.
How Much for a Game?
That’s before even getting into the furor surrounding the recent price hikes for base games. Premium console games spent nearly 20 years costing $60, resisting inflationary pressures. Then, with the start of the PS5 and Xbox Series X generation, that price ballooned to $70. Gamers say this is as much a consequence of rising development costs as corporate greed, and experts contend that the aforementioned “race-to-the-bottom” sale pricing necessitated publishers setting the ceiling higher for their new titles.
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What Do Players Even Want?
All of this makes it very tricky for publishers to find a middle ground. Do players just not want sprawling, single-player games anymore? The truth is that some do and some don’t. However, tastes have simply changed. Some players just want to log onto their favorite “forever game” and play a few matches with their friends.
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The Way Forward
When the industry catches its footing, it’ll account for this shift. Maybe single-player, story-driven games can’t be “the biggest ever” every time a new one comes out. If publishers adjust their expectations, scale their games appropriately, and plan for these market shifts, then things could change.
Read More: Sony Shuts Down Triple-A Game ‘Concord’ Just Two Weeks After Launch