The 11 Most Overrated No. 1 Picks in NFL History

Going first overall in the NFL Draft is supposed to mean you’re a franchise-changing superstar. But sometimes, all it guarantees is unrealistic hype and a massive paycheck.

From can’t-miss prospects who very much missed to guys who never lived up to the expectations, the history of No. 1 picks is filled with letdowns. These players were handed the keys to the league and barely got the car started.

11. Russell Maryland

Jan 31, 1993; Pasadena, CA, USA; FILE PHOTO; Dallas Cowboys defense tackle Russell Maryland (67) on the field against the Buffalo Bills during Super Bowl XXVII at the Rose Bowl. The Cowboys defeated the Bills 52-17. Mandatory Credit: Manny Rubio-Imagn Images
Manny Rubio-Imagn Images

He was solid, sure—but never really dominant like a No. 1 pick should be. Surrounded by talent in Dallas, he often blended in more than he stood out.

10. Ki-Jana Carter

Sep 1994; State College, PA, USA; FILE PHOTO; Penn State Nittany Lions running back Ki-Jana Carter (32) in action against the Boston College Eagles at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Photo By Imagn Images
RVR Photos-Imagn Images

Carter had speed, power, and Heisman hype—but his NFL career peaked before it even started. One preseason injury and he was never the same, stuck in the shadow of what could’ve been.

9. Alex Smith

Washington Football Team quarterback Alex Smith (11) passes the ball against the Philadelphia Eagles during the third quarter at Lincoln Financial Field.
Bill Streicher / Imagn Images

Yes, he had a long career and a nice comeback story, but for a No. 1 overall pick, the ceiling was painfully low. He was more game manager than game changer.

8. David Carr

Dec 17, 2006; Foxborough, MA, USA; Houston Texans quarterback (8) David Carr during the 1st quarter against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots came away with the win 40 - 7. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images Copyright © David Butler II
David Butler II-Imagn Images

The Texans drafted Carr to be their guy, then handed him the worst offensive line imaginable. He got sacked into oblivion and never recovered, no matter how good his hair looked in commercials.

7. Steve Emtman

Oct 26, 1991; Seattle, WA, USA; FILE PHOTO; Washington Huskies defensive tackle Steve Emtman (90) in action blocking against Oregon Ducks at Husky Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Imagn Images
RVR Photos-Imagn Images

Touted as a dominant defensive force out of college, Emtman couldn’t stay on the field long enough to prove it. Injuries wrecked his career before it ever really got started.

6. Baker Mayfield

Jan 10, 2021; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) celebrates with wide receiver Jarvis Landry (80) on the sideline against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the fourth quarter of an AFC Wild Card playoff game at Heinz Field. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images
Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

The swagger was there, the consistency was not. Baker had a few flashes but never quite lived up to his own hype—or the commercials.

5. Tim Couch

Sep 26,1998; Gainesville, FL, USA; FILE PHOTO; Kentucky Wildcats quarterback Tim Couch (2) in action rushing the ball against the Florida Gators at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: RVR Photos-Imagn Images
RVR Photos-Imagn Images

Cleveland needed a hero, and they got… Tim Couch. He took a beating behind a bad line and never became the cornerstone the Browns hoped for.

4. Jeff George

Jeff George
Peter Brouillet / Imagn Images

George had all the arm talent in the world, but couldn’t put it together between the ears. He bounced around the league, leaving frustration in his wake wherever he went.

3. Courtney Brown

Nov. 27, 2008; Irving, TX, USA; Dallas Cowboys cornerback Courtney Brown against the Seattle Seahawks at Texas Stadium. Dallas defeated Seattle 34-9. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Another Browns misfire, Brown was supposed to dominate the trenches for years. Instead, injuries and inconsistency made him nearly forgettable.

Read More: 15 NFL First-Round Picks Who Were Basically Just Combine Hype

2. Sam Bradford

Sam Bradford
Joe Camporeale / Imagn Images

He looked the part of a top pick, but never quite delivered anything beyond checkdowns and cautious play. Injuries didn’t help, but even when healthy, Bradford felt more like a placeholder than a star. Maybe he’ll turn things around in Seattle.

Read More: 15 NFL First-Round Picks Who Should’ve Never Heard Their Name That Early

1. JaMarcus Russell

Dec 20, 2009; Denver, CO, USA; Oakland Raiders quarterback JaMarcus Russell (2) walks off the field after the Raiders' 20-19 victory over the Denver Broncos at Invesco Field. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-Imagn Images
Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The arm strength was legendary, but unfortunately, so was the laziness. Russell looked the part but played like someone who wanted to be anywhere else but on the field.

Read More: Ranking the 20 Best Value Picks from the 2025 NFL Draft

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